BP As Your GM

October 26, 2010

Last week, in the midst of the postseason, Baseball Prospectus ran an article on the Nats. It was Christina Kahrl giving her thoughts on what she would do if she were the GM of the Nats. Here is what she said: “They’re not going to win in 2011. Nothing we do here is going to alter that. The question instead is what they might do to help provide a worthwhile product on the field. Consider this a pragmatic sanction of sorts for what Mike Rizzo is already up to, tailored for a goal that’s more attainable, like 80 wins without sacrificing any of the future. Even that’s not so easy, because the Nationals are already staffed in most of the bigger slots and roles.”

She conveniently has it boiled down to 7 points which make the team better. I’ll give you her ideas (in bold), and then my take on them.

  1. Offer Adam Dunn arbitration. If he accepts you have him for another year, if he doesn’t you get picks. Ok, but then who plays first base? I like the start of this, but I also think they need to re-sign Dunn for the next 2 or 3 years. I really think he’s their best option, and nobody’s lining up to fill his spot until at least mid-2012.
  2. Sit back and let Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa become your middle infield combination of the present. For this one, I agree with her 100%. There aren’t any middle infielders worth pursuing in free agency. Desmond looks like he can hit enough for a SS, and his fielding improved in the 2nd half. Espinosa still has alot to prove, but I’d give him a chance. It may not be perfect, but it’s the best option.
  3. Don’t let it ride in the rotation. What Christina means is go out and get someone. And I agree, although I’m more bullish on John Lannan than she is. According to her, he’s “getting tattooed even more frequently” but in reality he got tattooed until he went down to the minors, after his return he was quite good. Anyway, she recommends looking at Harden or Vazquez among others. Those were on my list, but I think they should at least try to get Lee. After that, I’d look towards Duchsherer and Webb as well. Read the rest of this entry »

Nationals Needs in the Offseason

October 12, 2010

If you’re looking for work, the Nationals have some open positions going in to next season. Who are they going to get to fill in the spots? Let’s first go down the list and see who’s going to play where

The Infield

At least part of this infield is complete. Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond appear to be locks to start next year, as does some combination of Wilson Ramos and Pudge at catcher. Right now it appears that Danny Espinosa is the starting 2B, but I am not convinced he is enough of a full time hitter to have a strong grip on the job. If there was another second baseman on the market, even for a short term signing, I wouldn’t put it past the team to go after him. As for first base, that is the gaping hole in the infield needs to be addressed.  Nobody is ready to step up from the minors, although Chris Marrero may not be far away, there is little thought that he’d be on the major league squad this summer.

The Outfield

The Nationals have 3 outfielders that will all play next year – Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse. Nyjer Morgan may or may not be on the team next season, and if he’s not, it is assumed Bernadina would be moved to center.

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DC IBWA 2010 Awards

October 1, 2010

What is the DC IBWA, you ask? Why, it’s the DC Internet Baseball Writer’s Association! Anyway, the group has asked for my, as well as everyone else who blogs about the Nats, vote on several topics. They’re due on Saturday, so I figured as I submitted my votes, I’d also let everyone see it. We get three votes for each category, with 5 points for first place, 3 for 2nd place and 1 for 3rd place. Here goes:

Goose Goslin MVP

  1. Ryan Zimmerman
  2. Adam Dunn
  3. Josh Willingham

Walter Johnson Starting Pitcher

  1. Livan Hernandez
  2. Stephen Strasburg
  3. John Lannan

Firpo Marberry Relief Pitcher of the Year

Read the rest of this entry »


A Little Farm Talk

August 4, 2010

There are a few players in the Nats farm system that are having really good years, and I haven’t been paying a ton of attention to them. So I figured I’d give a heads up on how some of the big name guys, and some guys you may have never heard of, are doing.

Chris Marrero – In the middle of his first full season in AA, the potential future first baseman is hitting .297/.357/.456, and he’s hit 14 home runs. Pretty impressive, considering he’s only 21 right now. He’s probably a few years away, but after suffering through an injury shortened 2008, he’s back to putting together the same kind of numbers he has done every year. If that power develops any more at all, he’s could be a major addition to the squad in 2012.

Josh Wilkie – I’ve mentioned him before, but if Storen is the future closer, Wilkie might be the future setup man. He’s 25 and he’s dominating in his first full season in AAA. In 53 1/3 IP, he’s got a 2.03 ERA with 42 K to only 18 BB. His fourth full season in the minors might be his last, he’ll probably spend some time in the majors in September, and I think he’ll have a great chance to make the team in the spring.

Read the rest of this entry »


Should Capps Be Traded?

July 27, 2010

The latest trade rumor is not the shipping out of Dunn or Willingham. This time, they’re talking about moving the closer, Matt Capps. Capps is having a good season, with a 2.86 ERA and 24 saves, enough to rank him 4th in the NL. He’s been a solid bullpen member, something important considering where this team was a year ago. Some may worry that losing Capps puts the Nats right where they were before, losing close games late in heartbreaking fashion. While that’s possible, there are some important things to remember.

First of all, Capps has pitched well, but he hasn’t been spectacular. His WHIP of 1.364 is a little heart attack inducing. In his 44 IP, he’s struck out 36, which is good (not closer great, but good), and has only walked 9. But he’s given up 51 hits and opponents are hitting him surprisingly well – .283/.317/.428. His WXRL is only 0.171 ranks him only 8th on the team. It is somewhat smoke and mirrors, although the strikeouts are real. Couple a decent number of Ks, let’s say he finishes the season with 65, and a bunch of saves, he’ll get some real money in arbitration. So the Nats would be on the hook for some loot with him. And he may not be that much better than what they’ve got.

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Time to Bring Someone Up?

July 21, 2010

When Luis Atliano came up to the Majors this year, not that much was expected of him. He had pitched well in AAA, but he wasn’t a real prospect. Yet his first two starts looked good, and after 9 GS he was 5-2 with a 4.24 ERA. Not bad, but not meant to last. In those 51 innings he had only walked 22, which isn’t bad, expect that he had also struck out only 22. The ratio was a hint, as was his 6% of strikes from swinging. People didn’t miss his pitches.

Since that 9th start, things have really tailed off for him. He’s gone 1-5 (the team has gone 1-6), his ERA has been 6.49 in the last 7 games, and while his K/BB ratio has improved to 18/10, its because people are swinging and hitting him more. The opposition has gotten 44 hits in only 34 2/3 IP off of him in that time, and over the whole season, his ERA has gone up to 5.15, rising in all but 2 of his last 7 starts, those two against Baltimore and Kansas City.

It may be time to find someone else to fill Atilano’s role, at least for the moment. This isn’t to say he can’t be a decent 5th starter, or find a constructive role in the bullpen, but that right now it appears his starts are set up to be losses. So if they do make a switch, is there anybody out there to take his place? There sure is, and you’ve probably heard of a few of them:

Read the rest of this entry »


Nats Looking Good in the AFL

October 29, 2009

Arizona Fall League numbers are not something to be trusted. However, good performances are still something to be noted, and so far the Nats have seen some pretty good performances from the impressive list of prospects that they sent.

Pitchers

Pitching is of course always the first thing to talk about now, especially since a certain San Diegan was drafted. Obviously, Stephen Strasburg is getting more attention in the AFL than most players do. So far, his numbers look unimpressive – 6.97 ERA, 10 1/3 IP with 10 H and 3 HR. But, in three appearances, the damage comes from only one. In the other two he compiled 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 3 BB, 7 K. The numbers aren’t the whole story in this league. According to Mark Zuckerman, “he certainly lived up to the hype.” His approach, his stuff, his delivery, everything looks good. These guys are working on things right now, so perfection isn’t expected or even thought about. Strasburg is still getting rave reviews, it’ll be really exciting to finally see him play.

As for the other guys, Read the rest of this entry »


Some Medicine for a Rough Monday

September 28, 2009

You may be having a rough morning. The Nats lost their 103rd game over the weekend and were swept by an NL East rival. If you watched the game, you know that they had a great chance to win on Sunday but blew taking the lead late in the game (man on third nobody out). That translated into extra innings, and a loss. Apparently this town had some problems in other sports as well. So rather than spend the WHOLE day complaining or being upset, here are a few things about the Nats that should make you happy:

  1. Ryan Zimmerman – Signed to be a franchise player this past offseason, people criticized the deal, saying he wasn’t worth the same money as guys like Youkilis and Markakis. He’s really come on this year, still very young, he has hit 32 HRs and is hitting .288/.361/.519 with only a week to go. Over 100 runs and RBIs are nice, too. As for the guys he was compared to, his WARP of 6.6  puts him at #23 in the majors, Youkilis’ 5.6 is 46th and Markakis’ 1.2 is way down at 428 on the list. Zimmerman also has a higher VORP (49.6) than the other two (48.3 and 20.5). By the way, today’s Ryan’s birthday, he’s turning 25. Youkilis is 30, Markakis will be 26 in 2 months. Happy Birthday, Ryan!
  2. Mike Rizzo – There’s a real GM here. Isn’t it nice to hear this guy speak rather than the last one? The level of competence just seems off the charts compared to the previous GM, and compared to GM-types on other local teams. (Speaking of that – hey Daniel Snyder, look up the road to Baltimore. No, not the Ravens, the Orioles. Remember the meddling owner who had to get his hands in everything and always needed to have his opinion heard? He’s been a paragon of virtue since he hired Andy MacPhail. I’m just saying… you can do it!)
  3. Read the rest of this entry »

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