Nats Pitchers and PECOTA

February 9, 2012

Yesterday we took a look at how Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA rated the Nats hitters. All in all, it wasn’t too bad, but you’d hope for a bit more from most of the guys. As for the pitchers, well, once again, let’s look at their rates. I’m gonna do ERA, K/9, BB/9, and I threw in (K/BB) which I just calculated.

Stephen Strasburg – 2.53, 9.8, 2.1 (4.6). Wow, those are some impressive numbers. If he can do that, he’s in the Cy Young discussion even though he’s on limited innings. There’s no way he’d win it this year in 160 or so IP, but the point is, PECOTA really likes him. His walk rate was lower last year, but with only a few starts, that may not be realistic. We’ll see, but these numbers look great.

Jordan Zimmermann – 4.04, 7.1, 2.4 (2.9). This looks like a regression in some ways, but his K/9 are actually up, while his BB/9 goes down. I’m surprised at how much higher than ERA is from last year (when he had a 3.18). I know some of that is regression to the mean type adjustments, as his ERA was better than his peripherals would suggest. But I’ll take the under on this prediction, I think his ERA will be below 4.00, and not by just a smidge.

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