2010 NL East Rankings Part 2: The Pitchers

Yesterday, I went over the the starting lineups for each team, and I was happy to give out 5 points for each position winner, 1 point for the bottom guys, and the logical points for those in between. Here’s the score as it stands before looking at the pitching staffs:

SCORE: Phillies (30), Mets (24), Braves (22), Marlins (22), Nationals (22)

So if we used the ol’ permanent pitcher for both teams methodology, I’d be picking the Phillies. But clearly there’s more to baseball than just hitting and fielding, there’s a whole slew of hurlers. Less clear is what starter is in what position. Normally it wouldn’t matter, but when we’re comparing each pitcher in an individual part of the rotation, it does. I used my best judgement here, and tried to go with rotations according to BP and other sources. Forgive me if you disagree:

#1 Starter

1. Phillies – Roy Halladay
2. Mets – Johan Santana
3. Marlins – Josh Johnson
4. Braves – Jair Jurrjens
5. Nationals – John Lannan

Halladay has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball the last few years, and that was playing in the AL, facing the Boston and New York juggernauts there on the regular. Throw in the league change and Santana’s recent injury, I’m giving him the top spot. Josh Johnson stayed healthy all last year and continued to look great, and Jurrjens may regress a bit, but is still a very effective young pitcher. The unfortunately thing is that with Lannan the apparent opening day starter, I have to put him here, at the bottom of the list…

SCORE: Phillies (35), Mets (28), Marlins (25), Braves (24), Nationals (23)

10 Things That 10 Games of Spring Training Have Shown

Since I’ve been somewhat cynical mentioning the meaninglessness of individual games in spring training, and the overall deceptiveness that stats can give you from this month, I wanted to show that I do think a few things can be learned from the month. It’s more than just a tuneup, it can give managers a very good idea of what to expect. I just believe that a month of games when people don’t care shouldn’t override several years of evidence. Anyway, here are a few things I’ve noticed in the first half of the spring:

1. Strasburg has looked very good – his second start wasn’t as well-covered or noticed, but it was just as good as the first. He’s pretty impressive so far
2. Elijah Dukes hasn’t looked very good – hitting .174/.263/.294 so far probably won’t make him lose his job, but it will significantly shorten his leash in April. He’s gotta start hitting, although at least he still can walk
3. Ian Desmond has alot of good news surrounding him – he’s hitting the hell out of the ball (.455/.580/.815, if you must know – whatever I’m sure that’s real sustainable) but Rizzo has also said he’s definitely NOT coming on the club as a utility man. This was assumed, but there were rumors to the contrary – like when Riggleman went on XM-Sirius last week and said he might be a utility man. He’s gonna start in Washington or Syracuse at SS – my guess is in Syracuse until they figure out whether they could get anything for Guzman
   

Before Looking to Tomorrow

Today could be interesting as well. Yeah, Strasburg goes tomorrow, but Scott Olsen pitches today. I don’t expect the 95 mph fastball from 3 years ago, but I want to see a healthy guy who can throw the ball. So even if he gets rocked, or strikes out the side, I’m really interested in seeing what he has. Will he be a veteran that can be relied on every 5 days?

If you like the Marquis signing, and think that it was wise to have a guy who has some innings behind him sitting in the rotation this year, then Olsen should be as important as anyone. Will he be able to go out there and throw 150+ innings this year? Will he be good enough to keep them in games and have a league average ERA? The interesting thing about Olsen as opposed to Marquis is there is more upside with Olsen. He may or may not be good at all, but if he is, you can start wondering if he’ll get that heater back as the spring goes on.

Not Livan Us Alone

If it was anyone else with his numbers, I’d be surprised the Nats signed him. What do the Nats need from a 35 year old starting pitcher who had a 5.44 ERA last year, a 6.05 ERA the year before? It’s not like he’s a recovery-from-injury project, someone with upside to do something much better. Those numbers are probably around what you’re gonna get from him, so why? Because the person we’re talking about is Livan Hernandez, and he apparently signed a lifetime contract with the Expos that this franchise still can’t get out of. Whenever he’s out of a job, someone here brings him back.

The problem with bringing Livo in to round out the rotation, in every sense of that phrase, is that he’s completely unnecessary. I know that people will say his numbers are a bit deceiving. His 5.28 ERA over the last 4 years doesn’t reflect the number of quality starts he had. The combination of very good games and very bad games inflate his numbers. To them I say, if he had enough good games, it would balance out. Instead, the last few years have been just plain bad:

Jumping on the Optimism Bandwagon

Pitchers and catchers are in, position players are starting to show up. Meanwhile, some young prospect threw down in Viera this weekend. Teammates were calling him Jesus, people were talking about how he’s the best thing they’ve ever seen, and there was a general feeling of optimism for the future. So let’s get on the train to positivityland and figure out what is the ideal scenario for this team. Not record-wise. If everything goes right they probably won’t be very good. And I’m talking about the big boy team right now, so I’ll avoid talking about development of guys that won’t see the pros this year.  I’m talking about what would help set up a winning season in 2011 – a complete list of things that would be good for this team, but trying to keep them all realistic. So, no, I’m not going to say that it would be awesome of Craig Stammen struck out 250 hitters and won a Cy Young, or if Josh Willingham became a gold glove outfielder.

Instead, here’s a list of the good things I’d hope to see, that actually have a chance to happen

Questions Going into Spring Training 2010

It’s almost upon us. Pitcher and catchers report in a matter of days rather weeks, although many are down there now already. Spring training games begin in a few weeks, and the Nats are semi-set at many places to begin the season. But that doesn’t mean there still aren’t many many questions that need to be answered. Here are a few I have going in to the season…

Who are the 5 starters?

That’s kind of a big one, so I put it first. You know, the guys that start the games? We’ve got two for sure! John Lannan is the only guy I have real confidence in as of Feb. Marquis is fine, he’s not great, but you can expect a close-to-league-average ERA and near 30 starts. On this team, that put you at the top. But that’s IT. There is nobody else guaranteed a spot. Three empty rotation spots is a ton, and I’m not sure they’re planning on bring Strasburg up any time soon. 2011 looks promising when you add him and Zimmermann, but until then? Here’s a quick rundown of the candidates:

• Scott Olsen – Was once pretty good, once threw in the mid-90s. He’s coming back from shoulder surgery, so he’s very risky BUT, if that heat is there, he’s gonna be decent. The problem is that it hasn’t been there for years.
• Garrett Mock – Lots of Ks but too many walks. Good stuff, but hasn’t put it together and is now 27.
• J.D. Martin – Had some success last year, but doesn’t miss many bats. Also turning 27.

I Leave You Alone With the Team for a Few Days

…and this is what I come back to? I just got back in to DC and it appears that the Nationals are a mess. Well, they always have been, maybe being away made me realize how messy things are. Here’s a quick rundown

• Jordan Zimmermann went on the DL? What? The pre-savior savior is hurt? Apparently it’s an “ultra-conservative” move for a guy who was gonna hit his innings limit anyway. Yadda, yadda, yadda, I’m still ultra scared that his arm is gonna explode or something.
• Apparently they aren’t signing Strasburg? At least according to ESPN. But I am less inclined to believe that they don’t understand the gravity of this signing. I think Rizzo and company, even the Lerners, realize that if they don’t sign Strasburg, they lose what little credibility they have as an organization. The Washington Times seems to think that everything is a-ok on that front.
• Trades are being made, Nats aren’t involved. The Red Sox traded Lugo for an OFer. Maybe they need more, Willingham would fit in well there. But they’re probably tapped. Of course, the Cards might need one now.
• An overpayed, non-rangey shortstop got traded. And it wasn’t Guzman. Julio Lugo’s contract is worse than Guzman’s, and the Cards still took him. That may have been the only team that’d want Guzman – although if the Reds think they’re still in it, they could use a SS.
• Scott Olsen is out for the year. Huge huge disappointment, overall, this season. Still, that trade… I’m happy with Willingham for Bonifacio, even leaving Olsen out of the conversation. Bonifacio, by the way, is now hitting a deadly .252/.297/.316, and has stolen 18 bases but has been caught 7 times. Somehow, he’s still starting.

Rotation Kept in a Somewhat Suprising Way

After I wrote an article discussing who should be moved and who should be demoted with the impending promotion of Scott Olsen, I was pretty proud of myself. After all, I found out that the Nats had indeed moved Stammen to the bullpen. This was my idea exactly, I was just waiting for them to decide whether to move down Hanrahan (my idea) or Colome. Then the job offer from the front office, I assumed, would arrive in my e-mail inbox.

So much for that, they instead decided to take Stammen back out of the bullpen, and he gets to stay as a starter. And as if to rub salt in the wound, they suggested to move Martis down to the minors. I was kind of surprised, considering I assumed he was the #2 of the 4 rookies in terms of performance. Yes, as the Nationals Journal points out “…since his May 13 victory against San Francisco, Martis is 0-3 with a 6.34 ERA. In those eight starts, he’s walked 22 and struck out just 13,” but that’s not the whole story. He has a better ERA than the other guys and started out so strong.

Keeping a 5 Man Rotation

Scott Olsen is allegedly healthy and doing rehab starts in AAA. The success of these rehab can be debated – his last one wasn’t too bad but he has looked spectacular. In his latest, and really only good start of the 3 so far, he went 6 IP, give up 2 ER with 5 K and only 1 BB. But he did give up 8 H. Anyway, Manny was miked up earlier this week and said that when Olsen came back, one of the youngsters would have to either move to the bullpen or go down to the minors. I guess they feel that Olsen has the most experience of the group, might as well start him.

Who Should Be Moved?

I’m taking Lannan out of this discussion. Besides being the only non-rookie, he’s been the most successful starter. He’s the Ace of the staff, even if he’s not a #1 pitcher. As for the others, well let’s look at what they’ve done over their last 5 games. I’ve listed the stats for each one of them, including the average over these games their totals.

Not Quite as Bad as they Seem

The Nationals are actually 5-7 since starting out in a terrible 1-10 slide. That could look prettier if it wasn’t for the bullpen explosions, implosions, and whatever else type of ‘plosion you can think of. The regrettable weekend series against the Marlins and a few blown saves here and there have combined to make this team look much worse than it is. They’re not as bad as you may think. Offensively, their rankings among other NL teams are pretty interesting:

Runs Scored per Game – 10th

Ok, that isn’t particularly promising, but when you look at the numbers that go into it :

Hits – 4th
OBP – 4th
SLG – 7th
OPS – 6th
HRs – 8th