BP As Your GM

Last week, in the midst of the postseason, Baseball Prospectus ran an article on the Nats. It was Christina Kahrl giving her thoughts on what she would do if she were the GM of the Nats. Here is what she said: “They’re not going to win in 2011. Nothing we do here is going to alter that. The question instead is what they might do to help provide a worthwhile product on the field. Consider this a pragmatic sanction of sorts for what Mike Rizzo is already up to, tailored for a goal that’s more attainable, like 80 wins without sacrificing any of the future. Even that’s not so easy, because the Nationals are already staffed in most of the bigger slots and roles.”

She conveniently has it boiled down to 7 points which make the team better. I’ll give you her ideas (in bold), and then my take on them.

1. Offer Adam Dunn arbitration. If he accepts you have him for another year, if he doesn’t you get picks. Ok, but then who plays first base? I like the start of this, but I also think they need to re-sign Dunn for the next 2 or 3 years. I really think he’s their best option, and nobody’s lining up to fill his spot until at least mid-2012.
2. Sit back and let Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa become your middle infield combination of the present. For this one, I agree with her 100%. There aren’t any middle infielders worth pursuing in free agency. Desmond looks like he can hit enough for a SS, and his fielding improved in the 2nd half. Espinosa still has alot to prove, but I’d give him a chance. It may not be perfect, but it’s the best option.
3. Don’t let it ride in the rotation. What Christina means is go out and get someone. And I agree, although I’m more bullish on John Lannan than she is. According to her, he’s “getting tattooed even more frequently” but in reality he got tattooed until he went down to the minors, after his return he was quite good. Anyway, she recommends looking at Harden or Vazquez among others. Those were on my list, but I think they should at least try to get Lee. After that, I’d look towards Duchsherer and Webb as well.

Nationals Needs in the Offseason

If you’re looking for work, the Nationals have some open positions going in to next season. Who are they going to get to fill in the spots? Let’s first go down the list and see who’s going to play where

The Infield

At least part of this infield is complete. Ryan Zimmerman and Ian Desmond appear to be locks to start next year, as does some combination of Wilson Ramos and Pudge at catcher. Right now it appears that Danny Espinosa is the starting 2B, but I am not convinced he is enough of a full time hitter to have a strong grip on the job. If there was another second baseman on the market, even for a short term signing, I wouldn’t put it past the team to go after him. As for first base, that is the gaping hole in the infield needs to be addressed.  Nobody is ready to step up from the minors, although Chris Marrero may not be far away, there is little thought that he’d be on the major league squad this summer.

The Outfield

The Nationals have 3 outfielders that will all play next year – Josh Willingham, Roger Bernadina, and Mike Morse. Nyjer Morgan may or may not be on the team next season, and if he’s not, it is assumed Bernadina would be moved to center.

Should Capps Be Traded?

The latest trade rumor is not the shipping out of Dunn or Willingham. This time, they’re talking about moving the closer, Matt Capps. Capps is having a good season, with a 2.86 ERA and 24 saves, enough to rank him 4th in the NL. He’s been a solid bullpen member, something important considering where this team was a year ago. Some may worry that losing Capps puts the Nats right where they were before, losing close games late in heartbreaking fashion. While that’s possible, there are some important things to remember.

First of all, Capps has pitched well, but he hasn’t been spectacular. His WHIP of 1.364 is a little heart attack inducing. In his 44 IP, he’s struck out 36, which is good (not closer great, but good), and has only walked 9. But he’s given up 51 hits and opponents are hitting him surprisingly well – .283/.317/.428. His WXRL is only 0.171 ranks him only 8th on the team. It is somewhat smoke and mirrors, although the strikeouts are real. Couple a decent number of Ks, let’s say he finishes the season with 65, and a bunch of saves, he’ll get some real money in arbitration. So the Nats would be on the hook for some loot with him. And he may not be that much better than what they’ve got.

Time to Start Believing What You See

It’s June 1, it’s the day after Memorial Day, and it’s 2 months into the season. The Nats have played 26% of their season, over one quarter of their games. It’s time to start believing what you’re seeing. Whatever they’ve done up to this point is probably pretty indicative of the type of team they are. Here are a few observations on what we’ve seen:

Thanks to an offensive outburst yesterday, the team is no longer being outscored by a massive amount. They’ve allowed only 10 more runs than they’ve scored, so with a record of 26-26, they are only considered “lucky” by one game. Their pythagorean W-L record is 25-27, still impressive considering where this team has come from. It’s been my opinion that a team with an effective bullpen is likely to play better than their Runs Scored/Runs Allowed would indicate – and that seems to be what is happening with the Nats. They’ve lost a few blowouts that got out of control, but other than that, their bullpen has kept them in it, and they’ve won (and lost) their share of very close games.

A Good Weekend After a Bad Week

Despite the way things looked for the first 15 or so inning of this series, the Nats end up with another series victory. They’re back above .500, for another day, the Nats are approaching the end of May without looking bad. The last few games, though, have been more painful to watch. The week of frustrating one-run losses was tough, but at least you figure they were playing well enough that it would balance out. Then they put in an almost perfect impression of an early 2009 game yesterday. John Lannan came out an pitched well, something that couldn’t be said for many starts this year, although 2 in a row decent starts gives some encouragement. The team took the lead into the final frame and then, BAM, it’s all gone. The major differences between ’09 and ’10 lie in the final results. Were this last year, that 9th inning would have yielding 3 runs, not 2. And then bottom of the 10th heroics? Wouldn’t have happened last year.

So thanks in large part to Josh Willingham hitting a bottom of the 10th inning home run, they are now sitting above .500 despite having played fully 45 games. And despite Willingham’s hitting slump of late – ok it’s not a real slump, but he’s only hitting .233 in his last 30 games, he’s getting on base, and leads the National League in walks. And give credit to the non-closer parts of the bullpen last night. Doug Slaten got the win, Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard and Sean Burnett all came in and did everything they needed to do.