Hope for a Healthy Wang

Everyone out there is trying to name the Nats rotation before the season begins, and while they have a group of guys that could fit the bill, it is tough to say that any one player has a guaranteed spot. It’s not, like in the past, because nobody is any good. But with nobody being GREAT, a collection of pretty good pitchers, while maybe making you feel better, doesn’t spell stability. One player that could wind up in the rotation is last year’s surprise signing – Chien-Ming Wang.

Wang isn’t going to start the season in the rotation, he’s still recovering from injury. But he’s not in no-man’s land right now, he’s projected to start the year actually pitching, in the minors. He was throwing off flat ground this week, and could be ready to go after a few rehab starts in the minors. Perhaps by May, he will be ready to join the rotation. But let’s not get too caught up in projecting when he’ll get up. Rather, let’s imagine what it would be like if he does.

The first thing to recognize about Wang’s pitching is that he is an extreme ground ball pitcher. We always think of John Lannan as a groundball pitcher, and he is. But check out his numbers compared to Wang’s (using the Fangraph’s stat):

If PECOTA Doesn’t Have Anything Nice to Say…

Baseball Prospectus released their PECOTA numbers this week, and obviously there is a ton of data. At first I tried to just pick out some interesting bit of information, which I’ll get to later. Keep in mind that playing time adjustments haven’t been made yet. Guys who won’t be playing are in there, but that shouldn’t affect their non-counting stats. Before that, though, I want to share what really jumped out at me. PECOTA is not very sympathetic to Nationals position players. Here’s what I mean:

PECOTA Doubts the Position Players

PECOTA thinks (ok it doesn’t think, it calculates) that almost all Nats who might be considered starters will have a lower OPS in 2011 compared to 2010. That includes those you might expect, such as Ryan Zimmerman (drop of .069), Jayson Werth (drop of .086) and Mike Morse (drop of .097). It includes others that you might not expect such as Adam LaRoche (drop of .007), Danny Espinosa (drop of .028), and Wilson Ramos (drop of .038). The only starter types with increases are Ian Desmond (increase of .003), Roger Bernadina (increase of .012), and Rick Ankiel (increase of .017).

Nationals Surnacronyms

Rob Neyer has been all about the surnacronym game this week, but I have noticed a serious lack of Washington players. So, as a response, I tried to go through much of the starting lineup and create one, using last names, and descriptions that are actually fitting of the players. Here goes:

• Desmond: Dumb Errors, Supposedly Maturity Often Nourishes Defense
• Zimmerman: Zippers Infield Marvelously, Mashes Everything, Remains Most Awesome National
• Morgan: Must Overtly Restrict Getting Always Nabbed
• LaRoche: Late At Reaching Offensive Crest, Hacks Early
• Strasburg: Some Throwers Regress After Surgery But Usually Return Great

Assessment of The Gorzelanny Deal

Yesterday I wrote a chronicle of the major league life of Tom Gorzelanny, new Nats starter(?) just acquired from the Cubs. What I didn’t know at the time was who he was traded for, so I couldn’t make an assessment of whether or not I liked the trade. Let’s again look at what the Nats got in Gorzelanny.

They got a relatively young lefty, under control for 3 more seasons, who profiles as a starter. He has been a strong pitcher at times, but when his control disappears so does his ability to get people out. Last year, as a starter, he was pretty successful. He was very good until he got nailed with a liner in the finger, that’s when he got shifted to the bullpen and barely appeared. Coming back on June 30, the rest of his season wasn’t as good, and he had a few really rough outings to go with the good ones. Despite all that, his numbers, in terms of ERA and WAR, would have made him the 3rd best starter on the Nats last year, behind Livan and Strasburg.

In exchange, the biggest NAME the Nats gave up was Michael Burgess. Burgess hits the ball very far, and has a very good arm out in right field. When he hits the ball, he shows 30 homer potential. He also did well in limited time in AA this year, and is only 22. Those are his positives. Negatives are that he is a below average outfielder, and he doesn’t hit the ball very much. Keith Law’s take on him is interesting. Here’s what he said:

28 More Starts, Who Pitches?

The Nationals have exactly 28 games left to play this season and according to their website, the rotation is:

• Livan Hernandez
• John Lannan
• Jason Marquis
• Jordan Zimmermann
• Scott Olsen

That means, assuming the rotations stays the same, Livan, Lannan and Marquis will get 6 more starts each, the other 2 get 5. Of course, we know, that this isn’t the case. For one thing, Yunesky Maya will be getting some starts. So how should the rotation actually go? Here’s my take on each guy, and whether they should remain a starter for September.

Livo – Re-signed for next year, he is the elder statesmen of the group, and has been the best pitcher on the team this year. His 3.7 WAR (according to Baseball Reference) is not only the best by a pitcher on this year’s team, it’s the best since John Patterson’s 4.9 and Esteban Loiza’s 3.8 in 2005. He won’t catch Patterson, but he has the opportunity to go past Loiza this month. Regardless, he will and should continue to start, if only to bring some stability. STARTER

It’s Been a Rough Couple of Weeks

The Nats are, as Buster Olney said, limping home for a weekend series against the White Sox. The team is now 5 games below .500. Since starting out 20-15, they have gone 11-21, which is just plain bad. Slight good mixed with quite bad means your leaning on the bad side. They have some issues, and while they’re not a bad team overall, one thing has really lead them into a major slump.

The Problem

The biggest problem over this stretch has been the starting pitching. At one point we were talking, and this is totally out of memory so I may be wrong, of something like 10 out of 11 games with a quality start. Or something near that. Now it is just the opposite.

In the month of June, the Nats have played 15 games. Stephen Strasburg has started 2 of them. Out of the remaining 12 games, there have been 4 quality starts – 2 by Livan, 1 by Lannan, and 1 by Stammen. That isn’t a formula for success, when just over half your games aren’t even quality starts. The starting pitching had failed this team, meanwhile the bullpen, despite some hiccups, has been among the best in the league. Without better starting pitching, just like we knew back in March, this team can’t win.

The Cure?

Well, Strasburg is going tonight, and he’s pretty much expected to pitch well. If something happens and he doesn’t, then your gonna see how well Riggleman can keep this team together. But don’t get yourself too far down in the depths of despair. The cavalry, it’s coming, although it’s still some time away.

20 Days of Baseball

The Nationals are about to embark on a 20 games over 20 days gauntlet, which is relatively brutal, when your job is playing baseball. The good news is much of it is at home, the first 6 and the last 5 all take place in Nationals Park, which may see some more fans come out. Between the untimely demise of the Caps season and the arrival of spring weather, you might see some people at the ballpark. The second homestand will draw some visiting fans, so we’ll see just how the stadium fills up. The other good news is that you and I get to watch the Nats play every day if we so choose, which is pretty great.

Their journey begins, as I said, at home, and they are going to play the Braves who are sitting uncomfortably in last place in the NL East. They are probably not the worst team in the division, and they have a chance to leapfrog at least the Nats depending on how the series plays out. But they’ll start by facing Livan Hernandez, who is tied for the league lead in ERA at 0.87. The Nats get to face Kawakami tonight, who is better than his almost five and a half ERA indicates, although hopefully not tonight. They then get to host their recent nemesis, the Marlins to finish out the homestand. Before the end of the weekend, they’ll likely face several young and impressive pitchers – Tommy Hanson, Chris Volstad, Josh Johnson, and Anibel Sanchez. The Nats bats will probably need to come through this week in order to exit it with a winning record.

Get Ready for Your Short Term Team

You expect changes with a young team. You expect changes with a bad team. You expect changes with a team that has a talented, ready for prime time prospect in the minors. So the Nats, who are all of those teams, should see some changes real soon. But just how many changes? Well some of them are obvious, like the rotation, but there is still possibilities for changes throughout the lineup, and of the course the bullpen is a work in progress. Changes are afoot, so if you don’t like the way this team looks right now, you’ll be happy to know it won’t look the same in short order.

I listed the team’s alleged lineup going in to the season, and then put out some possibilities that may be coming by the end of the year. This isn’t necessarily my prediction for April’s team and September’s team, just more a demonstration of a possibility. Now that all that caveating is out of the way…

Rotation

Firstly, the rotation has the potential to change big time by as soon as June or July.

2010 NL East Rankings Part 2: The Pitchers

Yesterday, I went over the the starting lineups for each team, and I was happy to give out 5 points for each position winner, 1 point for the bottom guys, and the logical points for those in between. Here’s the score as it stands before looking at the pitching staffs:

SCORE: Phillies (30), Mets (24), Braves (22), Marlins (22), Nationals (22)

So if we used the ol’ permanent pitcher for both teams methodology, I’d be picking the Phillies. But clearly there’s more to baseball than just hitting and fielding, there’s a whole slew of hurlers. Less clear is what starter is in what position. Normally it wouldn’t matter, but when we’re comparing each pitcher in an individual part of the rotation, it does. I used my best judgement here, and tried to go with rotations according to BP and other sources. Forgive me if you disagree:

#1 Starter

1. Phillies – Roy Halladay
2. Mets – Johan Santana
3. Marlins – Josh Johnson
4. Braves – Jair Jurrjens
5. Nationals – John Lannan

Halladay has been arguably the best pitcher in baseball the last few years, and that was playing in the AL, facing the Boston and New York juggernauts there on the regular. Throw in the league change and Santana’s recent injury, I’m giving him the top spot. Josh Johnson stayed healthy all last year and continued to look great, and Jurrjens may regress a bit, but is still a very effective young pitcher. The unfortunately thing is that with Lannan the apparent opening day starter, I have to put him here, at the bottom of the list…

SCORE: Phillies (35), Mets (28), Marlins (25), Braves (24), Nationals (23)

Jumping on the Optimism Bandwagon

Pitchers and catchers are in, position players are starting to show up. Meanwhile, some young prospect threw down in Viera this weekend. Teammates were calling him Jesus, people were talking about how he’s the best thing they’ve ever seen, and there was a general feeling of optimism for the future. So let’s get on the train to positivityland and figure out what is the ideal scenario for this team. Not record-wise. If everything goes right they probably won’t be very good. And I’m talking about the big boy team right now, so I’ll avoid talking about development of guys that won’t see the pros this year.  I’m talking about what would help set up a winning season in 2011 – a complete list of things that would be good for this team, but trying to keep them all realistic. So, no, I’m not going to say that it would be awesome of Craig Stammen struck out 250 hitters and won a Cy Young, or if Josh Willingham became a gold glove outfielder.

Instead, here’s a list of the good things I’d hope to see, that actually have a chance to happen