The beginning of the end for Bowden?

In case you haven’t noticed, I’ve never made a comment on Jim Bowden’s ability at his job here. I am likely to keep it that way for now, and I’m not one to toss rumors around lightly either. But given the source (Baseball Prospectus) and the latest investigations, I thought this was worth passing on to you.

Here is the article, titled “Nats strongly considering change”

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1189

When Lying Really Does Hurt the Team

ARod’s lying or steroid use doesn’t infuriate me the way this does:

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/nationalsjournal/2009/02/gonzalez_updated.html

Thanks to the Nats Journal for always breaking news, to me, at least. Here is the original SI article:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/02/17/nats.gonzalez/index.html

I honestly think this could have happened to alot of organizations. Record keeping may not be the same as it is here, so even if they did their diligence, this might have happened. Heck, the Rangers were ready to sign him, too. And I don’t care about the $1.4 million. Let Odalis hold out the whole year, and you make more than half of that back.

Who Will Shock the World?

Must fight the boredom… How about a survey, to get an idea of what people are expecting. Now WE all know that the players will all perform well above their heads. Everyone knows Ryan Zimmerman is good, and that Guzman and Lannan had good seasons last year. But, and this may surprise people who don’t live in Washington, other people play for this team. Out of my own curiosity, based on whatever the heck criteria you want to apply, who do you think the baseball universe will be talking about?

Feel free to leave a comment ’splaining yourself. Especially if you voted “someone else”

Another Way to Get Young Players

This article is not even close to an original idea, but the Nats have another opportunity to get young players, the minor league free agent market. One of my favorite baseball writers, Steven Goldman of Baseball Prospectus, suggested as much for the Yankees. The same applies to the Nats. Since he just wrote about it, and writes better than me, if you want to see a few names that might be of interest, click over to the Pinstriped Blog. Also, if you are more knowledgable on all these names than I, you can go straight to the list.

And while I’m posting a links, all you DC area Maryland fans (and possibly UVA fans, although the colors may offend you) might be interested in this t-shirt over at mdtees. Pretty clever.

Only a Month to Go

Don’t worry, it’s almost over. The Nats are obviously a team that needs improvement, the time to start forgetting about this season probably started the second week in April. But what specifically needs improvement? Well, pretty much everything. But some spots more than others. Let’s look at where they rank in different categories and see how they stack up with the rest of the NL, starting with pitching:

Runs Allowed:13th
ERA: 13th
BB/G:13th
HRs:13th
Ks: 11th

You Can Vote for the Presidents

At least that’s how it has worked for the vast majority of American history right? Anyway, Nats basher Homerderby (who was right, but maybe the historically injury-plagued season contributed to the teams level of suckiness?) is having a contest on who has the best mascot in baseball. The Nats matchup is with the Padres Swinging Friar. Frankly, at first I wasn’t even sure I wanted to vote for the Presidents over the Padre. Then I remembered I wasn’t a commie-nazi, and it was my right and my duty to vote for the President(s). Also, he’s not wearing pants, which is always inappropriate even in cartoons. So faster than Emilio Bonifacio, I clicked and voted for The Racing Presidents (Washington Nationals).

http://homerderby.com/archives/2310

Go ahead and vote, the deadline is August 8th. Maybe the Nats could end up winning SOMETHING this season.

Only 3 days left!

No firesale here. In fact, the Nats seem content if people don’t even come in the store, it seems. There is not that much on the roster to trade at this point, I admit. There are guys like Kearns, who may be near the bottom of his value, and he’s still pretty young, so they figure he’s either a piece of the future, or part of a bigger trade. Guzman just got re-upped, at a deal, so signing him right now may be problematic. The relief core had a tough beginning to the season, but they’re not this bad, so maybe it’s not time to dump them. But there are guys that can go. People who read this regularly know I had a great deal of respect for the opinion of ESPN’s Keith Law. I don’t always agree with him, but I like to hear what he has to say. On the Bonifacio for Rauch deal, he said (link is for ESPN Insiders only):

For Washington, getting just Emilio Bonifacio for Rauch has to be seen as a letdown, although it’s better than their trade-deadline results from 2007…Flipping Rauch for Bonifacio, even if the return seems disappointing, is absolutely better than committing to Rauch for another two years, especially given his health history and the unpredictable year-to-year performance of relievers.

Yes yes and yes on that. There really is no need to hold on to guys who aren’t part of the solution. Fill up the minor league roster. Law also criticizes re-signing Guzman. While I don’t hate the deal, I really think they could have shopped him around to a contendor for something else. Now, I am not hating Guzman playing SS for this team right now, and he isn’t as terrible as he was early in the contract. So trading him for little… maybe that isn’t worth it, but again, they need to ask themselves if Guzman is going to eventually be part of a playoff run. I suspect not. As Law again says wisely “Bad teams should not be locking up their mediocrities to long-term deals, but rather should be looking to convert them all into any kind of young players.” THAT, I couldn’t have put more perfectly.

So ask yourself “Do you want more trades like Bonifacio for Rauch?” If you mean young prospects that may not turn out to be stars, but are likely future major leaguers in exchange for someone who likely will never be part of a contending Nationals team, the answer should be obvious.

Meanwhile

The Nationals keep losing. I mostly blame it on being outscored. It seems they give up more runs than they score. That just gives them fits when it comes to tallying wins. Go figure. As they say, runs scored and runs allowed are a better predictor of wins and losses in the future than actual wins and losses are. If this confuses you…

…there is a book called Bridging the Statistical Gap out there that a fellow blogger Eric J. Seidman has written that goes over this, and other, baseball stats. Here’s what he says about it:

it is designed to be a sabermetrics 101 type of book for more casual fans intimidated by statistical analysis but still looking to get their feet wet. Nobody reading will be overwhelmed but will walk away with a greater understand of not only numbers in general, but also the history of certain stats, what they do and do not tell us, and which stats/metrics DO tell us what we seek. Oh, and the foreword was written by Jayson Stark, so it’s a legit book.

Plus, the book’s cover looks pretty cool.

All Star Game Notes

Just a few observations from the All Star festivities

• Starting about 8:45 EST is completely unnecessary. It was a fast moving game until the late innings, and it still wasn’t going to end until close to midnight, even without the extra innings.
• Guzman made a few really nice plays. Joe Morgan actually echoed my thought by saying “Cristian Guzman made a few plays with two outs and the winning run at third, and they were not easy plays.” Sooo, does anyone want to trade for him? I like the guy, but he could help out a team, and I feel like he’s played well enough over the last few years that the Nats could get something in return. Either way, he should be the national spokesman for laser eye surgery.
• There were a few noticeable missed calls – Tejada didn’t tag Kinsler on the stolen base to name one. If the throw beat you last night, you were out, no matter what.
• You gotta read the article about Ichiro’s pre-game speech.
• Whatever Papelbon said was completely overblown by the media. Then again, so is his performance this year. He has, at best, the 4th best numbers for a closer in the AL right now behind Mariano, Soria, and Nathan. Also he has 4 blown saves. Yet everyone thinks he’s unhittable. Not that he’s bad, either.
• Yankees fans should boo every Red Sox player, but the threats to Papelbon’s wife are unacceptable. HOWEVA, if anyone thinks the same exact thing wouldn’t happen the same way in Boston to a Yankee player, they are kidding themselves.
• Josh Hamilton is probably going to get more votes for MVP than he deserves. He is great, and a super story. But he’s hitting .310/.367/.552 with 21 HRs and 7 SBs right now (no complaints there).
• The interesting thing about being a Yankees for, or a Red Sox fan, for that matter, is when they see someone like Josh Hamilton, they can say “how can we get THAT guy?” For Nats fans, and most other teams, it’s more like “I wish we had someone similar to that guy.”
• Comparatively, his teammate Milton Bradley is hitting .316/.440/.610 with 19 HRs and 4 SBs. And how about Ian Kinsler – .337/.397/.548 with 14 HRs and 23 SBs. Of all of them, I’d vote for Kinsler. Most people still underestimate the value of a quality middle infielder who hits like a very good outfielder.
• Will the three errors and the terrible plate performance allow the Nats trade for Dan Uggla? He would immediately become the best healthy player on the team, and with Zimmerman healthy, he’s probably second best player on the roster (although I really that Dukes will eventually hit better than both of them).
• Speaking of trades, the Nats have about a dozen pitching prospects and their hitting prospects consist of Chris Marrero, Michael Burgess, and Justin Maxwell. Maxwell is a Mike Cameron type, but he is a longshot for real success in the majors. Marrero and Burgess are showing potential. Maybe trading a pitching prospect or two for a hitting prospect or two is a good idea.
• Back to the All Star weekend – will anyone remember that whats his name won the HR derby?
• I am done with the derby needing to be All Stars or defending champions, the league just needs to pick people. Besides what Rick Reilly pointed out – that every participant was white, there were some glaring omissions. Forget about ARod, how about Giambi (who has 19 HRs so far this year) in Yankee Stadium with the short porch? If I could have picked the group, off the top of my head, I would have liked to see Giambi, Adam Dunn, Grady Sizemore, Jermaine Dye, Ryan Howard, Josh Hamilton, Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Braun, and Adrian Gonzalez. I reserve the right to modify that, I probably should have included Justin Morneau in that list…
• If you want to see a real life demonstration of “regressing to the mean” watch Dioner Navarro for the rest of the year.
• Michael Young should get a lifetime invitation to the All Star game, because he loves hitting the game winning RBI.
• George Sherrill has a legitimate claim to an MVP of the game vote. Maybe he wasn’t the most valuable player in the game, but he was probably top 5. Who would have guessed that?
• Lidge warmed up, according to Jayson Stark, SIX times over the course of two hours. No wonder he didn’t look sharp. At least he didn’t have to face Pujols.
• I would have loved to see a position player have to come in and pitch. I’m not sure that would have made the game higher quality , but it would have made it more of a spectacle.
• Everyone knows the least deserving All Star was Veritek, a total reputation pick. But how about Fukudome? Since hitting .348/.443/.500 as of May 3rd, he’s hit .243/.352/.360 over the last 61 games. Also Joe Crede, hitting .248/.322/.433 since April 29. Fukudome was voted in, but did Crede need to be there over Miguel Cabrera, Mike Lowell, Jason Giambi, or Jermaine Dye? (Answer: No)
• I’m usually pretty good at making mid-game calls (Home Run, right now!) but my definitive “there is NO WAY the AL wins after loading the bases with no outs in the 10th, then getting 2 on with 1 out in the 11th and not scoring” was apparently, off the mark.
• One more thing – as someone who lived in New York for a period of time – Bobby Murcer will be greatly missed. Great commentator, by all accounts a great guy, and a great player. He was the one player between the early 60s and late 70s that was actually really good for the Yankees. His numbers may not be very impressive, but I’ve heard interviews with Bill James saying his numbers are much better than they look in context thanks to the era, the stadium and the league. James also said that in 1971 Murcer was, in his opinion, the best player in the game. As bad as his splits look, his career OPS+ of 124 should tell you how he performed.

No Shirt Giveaway on Sunday

The Washington Post’s Nationals Journal confirmed what I mentioned earlier in the week. There will no longer be a t-shirt giveaway for the kiddies this coming Sunday. At least they have made up for it in some way. Those kids, instead of getting a shirt, will get 2 tickets to a future game. Also, they finally posted something up on the website about it.

While it’s annoying that they did this, and I wonder if it was done because people complained, and blogs made people’s dissatisfaction more public, at least they addressed the issue. I’m sure there won’t be too many angry fans if they get free tickets in exchange. And it’s not like there aren’t plenty to giveaway. Maybe they should give the kids the Presidents Seats for a few games.

Who is Aaron Crow?

He is, according to Keith Law, the latest player on the Nats watch list. In keeping with giving you perspective on as many possible picks as I can here we go…

Aaron Crow is a right handed college pitcher that BA ranks as the #5 talent in the draft. His big asset is his fastball, which is fast with some sink to it, and he commands it well. He also throws a very good slider, but his delivery is a bit questionable. Which I guess makes him an injury risk, but obviously these guys know much more than me about it… Keith Law says he’s a solid power pitcher with a chance to be a #2 starter.

Enjoy tomorrow’s draft to anyone who’s watching. I’ll be suffering through the work day, but I’ll give some profiling of who gets pick later in the week (or early next week).