Historical Happening

Yesterday at Nats Park, a truly historic event took place. No, I’m not talking about the Teddy victory, which somehow made the cover of the Washington Post. I like the president’s race, it’s a cute idea, but I’m glad this silly Teddy thing is over. It jumped the shark last year or earlier, and I’m just glad we don’t have to hear about it over and over again anymore.

The truly historic event that I was referencing? Best record in baseball! This isn’t some minor thing. A baseball team in Washington has only managed this twice, ever. And one of those times they ended up winning the World Series.

It’s a special moment, because it really does indicate that the Nationals are for real. They didn’t squeak into the playoffs, nor did they back into the NL East title. They had the best record in all of Major League Baseball.This is not a minor thing. It shows just how good they were this season. Hopefully it also indicates how good they are compared to the rest of the league, but also, thanks to the youth, gives a clue as to how good they’ll be the next few years.

A Winning Tradition

As you probably know, the Nationals clinched a winning record for the 2012 season on September 3rd after beating the Cubs 2-1. This winning record isn’t just any winning record, it’s the first one for a Washington baseball team since 1969. That year, the Senators went 86-76, although they only finished fourth in the AL East. Ok, you say, that’s not surprising that it’s been that long, as there was actually no baseball in town from 1972-2005, so big whoop.

But it is a big whoop (I don’t know what that means) because that was the only winning record that version of the Senators had. And when you go back to the team that became the Twins, their last winning record was 1952, when they went 78-76. In fact, there have only been 20 teams. Here’s the list of teams, their records, and the place they finished in the division:

The Nats and Future Power

ESPN put out their annual Future Power Rankings today, and it ranks the Nats 11th overall. I normally don’t worry about these things too much, but there is something I find a little curious about how they rank them. Check out what they did:

Majors - I get that their Majors score is only 26/30, despite the whole best-record-in-baseball thing. Frankly, they aren’t the offensive juggernauts as of yet, and the lack of a true CF or leadoff hitter is mentioned in the text. Plus 26 points is actually 4th best, behind only the Yankees, Rangers, and Angels, so I can certainly buy that.

Minors – Frankly, while this looks low, they don’t have a ton of true top level talent. Rendon could still end up being the best hitter in last year’s draft, and he’ll have time to show it this fall, but as for now, he’s barely played. Giolito is about to have TJ surgery before the end of the month. There are some others here and there, but it isn’t exactly deep or full of top level sure thing talent right now.

Bringing Back the Pitcher’s Win

Most baseball fans know that the pitcher’s W doesn’t mean as much these days (as opposed to the team W, which means everything). At least, logically, we all understand that a pitcher getting a W is dependent on too many things outside of his control to be a good indicator of his ability. But there is something ingrained in our psyche, perhaps, that makes us appreciate the numbers. Yes, most people were ok with Felix Hernandez winning the Cy Young in 2010 with a paltry 13-12 record. But the W still holds a special place in our hearts, and Nats fans get to appreciate them, despite their obsolescence, this year more than ever.

Yes the pitcher’s W is a dated measurement, but it’s not completely useless. You can glean some very important information by looking at it. It does give you at least a general idea of the health and productivity of your starting pitching staff. Take a look at the list of Nats pitchers with 10 Ws or more since they’ve been in town:

In 1912 Washington Got Their First Winner

I posted this back in October, but with the way the Nats are playing, and the interest that the recent 1924 throwback uniforms generated, I figured why not repost. One thing I noticed is that while I thought 2012 would be their first winning season, I wasn’t so bold as to proclaim it loudly. And I certainly didn’t expect them to win the NL. Of course, that was before the 2nd wild card, and Gio, and Bryce being the first 19 year old in forever to actually hit in the bigs. Now something as simple as being better than .500 seems to be shooting a little low…

2012 should be a big year for the Nationals. Many believe that it will be their first winning season in Washington. And if it is, that would be quite a coincidence, as it would be exactly 100 years after Washington baseball’s FIRST first winning season. The Senators finished 91-61 that year, for their first winning season ever, in their 12th season of existence. Coming in 2nd in the AL, it was also the first time they finished higher than 6th place out of 8.

It wasn’t just the first winning season in “modern” baseball in Washington, which most people put at the turn of the last century. The Washington Statemen/Senators, who played from 1891-1899, never had a winning season. Neither did the original Washington Nationals, who existed from 1886-1889. (For a little background on those teams, click here). The two Washington teams that played in 1884 were under .500 as well. So 1912 really was the first winning season in Washington major league baseball.

In honor of the 100th anniversary of the first winning season, and in hopes of the first one for this franchise in this city, it makes sense for the Nats to honor them the best way a baseball team can – by wearing throwbacks. The first picture, on the right hand side of the screen, are the 1912 uniforms, pretty good, although I’ve never been a fan of the “nothing on the front” jerseys.

Bad Weekend, Good Month

The Nats had a bit of a rough weekend, losing to their alleged “rivals” the Baltimore Orioles in 2 out of 3 games. And they had a shot to win it until Sean Burnett, who had basically been perfect this year (2 saves, 19 holds, 0 losses, 3 ER) got his first loss after a 2-1 defeat. So the last weekend certainly could have gone better. The last month, on the other hand, could have gone much worse.

On May 21st they had just finished up a series loss against Baltimore again, and we spoke about their upcoming schedule on the podcast. They were about to go up against a month’s worth of teams with winning records, starting with Philly (who was over .500 when the series began) and we said at the end we’d have a much better idea of how this team was going to fare. Well that month is over, and the Nats certainly seem to be for real.

They took 5/6 from Philly and Atlanta, got swept by Miami, split a 2 game series with Atlanta, took a series with the Mets, swept Boston and Toronto in Boston and Toronto, came home and got swept by the Yankees, beat Tampa and lost 2/3 to Baltimore. They went 17-12 since the start of that series against Philly, and had a series record of 6-3-1. Every team that they played had winning records when they played them, and only Miami and Philly are below .500 today.

Baseball Prospectus in DC

The guys from Baseball Prospectus made their annual pilgrimage to Politics and Prose in DC last night, and I went to hear them talk. It is always a fun session because they basically talk about what they do for 10 minutes, then answer questions for an hour. As you can imagine many of the question focused on the Nats, so I’ll go over some takeaways. In the picture on the right, you see Steve Goldman at the podium and Jay Jaffe, his mustache and his beer (a Dale’s Pale Ale – great choice!) off to the right

• What about the abundance of starting pitchers the Nats have? The consensus was that the old adage is true, you really can’t have enough pitching. Jaffe said over a 3 year time frame 50% of pitchers spend at least some time on the DL. They aren’t concerned that this will be an issue for the team, and said getting Edwin Jackson for the year was a “good move.”
• The front office seems so smart, yet they want to put Desmond as a leadoff? While he may not be as bad as people assume, it isn’t great to have a sub-.300 OBP guy in your leadoff spot. There was some speculation that this isn’t being done as a solution, rather as a purposeful move to try to teach Desi to be more selective. Also, don’t be surprised of Espinosa, who may better fit in the role, takes over. Goldman said that batting order in general is overrated, and managers are behind the statistical curve on this – it’s not about what guys fit best, it really is a distribution of ABs. So Desmond not “fitting” that spot may not matter, but giving the most ABs to him over the course of the season does.

In 2012, Nationals Should Honor 1912

2012 should be a big year for the Nationals. Many believe that it will be their first winning season in Washington. And if it is, that would be quite a coincidence, as it would be exactly 100 years after Washington baseball’s FIRST first winning season. The Senators finished 91-61 that year, for their first winning season ever, in their 12th season of existence. Coming in 2nd in the AL, it was also the first time they finished higher than 6th place out of 8.

It wasn’t just the first winning season in “modern” baseball in Washington, which most people put at the turn of the last century. The Washington Statemen/Senators, who played from 1891-1899, never had a winning season. Neither did the original Washington Nationals, who existed from 1886-1889. (For a little background on those teams, click here). The two Washington teams that played in 1884 were under .500 as well. So 1912 really was the first winning season in Washington major league baseball.

In honor of the 100th anniversary of the first winning season, and in hopes of the first one for this franchise in this city, it makes sense for the Nats to honor them the best way a baseball team can – by wearing throwbacks. The first picture, on the right hand side of the screen, are the 1912 uniforms, pretty good, although I’ve never been a fan of the “nothing on the front” jerseys.

2011 Ends, So Does Rebuilding

Last night, while many baseball fans were watching an incredible end to the regular season with the excitement of the playoffs starting 2 days early, the Nats were finishing up their season. They had a good game, winning 3-1, and a promising one in that Stephen Strasburg pitched very well – 6 IP, 10 K, 1 H, 2 BB and 0 ER. They not only finished the 2011 regular season, but they should have finished their final season of true “rebuild”.

Look who they already have written in the lineup next year, and some of their stats:

C – Wilson Ramos, 23 years old, .779 OPS , rookie
2B – Danny Espinosa, 24 years old, .737 OPS, 21 HR, rookie
3B – Ryan Zimmerman, 26 years old, .798 OPS (.846 after July 2)
SS – Ian Desmond, 25 years old, .294/.342/.422 after July 5
1B/LF – Michael Morse, 29 years old, .910 OPS
RF – Jayson Werth, 32 years old, 20 HR, .264/.349/.445 after July 18
SP – Stephen Strasburg, 22 years old, 24 IP, 4 ER, 24 K, 2 BB, returned from TJ
SP – Jordan Zimmermann, 25 years old, 3.18 ERA, 4.0 K/BB
SP – John Lannan, 26 years old, 3.70 ERA
RP – Tyler Clippard, 26 years old, 1.83 ERA, 88 1/3 IP, 104 K, 26 BB
RP – Drew Storen, 23 years old, 2.75 ERA, 75 1/3 IP, 74 K, 20 BB

Werth’s track record of success, couple with his 2nd half, suggests he’ll be fine next year.The only real question mark in that group is Ian Desmond. Everyone else seems to be ready to produce and win games.  Ross Detwiler, only 25 years old, is a lefty who at times looked unhittable, and finished the year with a 3.00 ERA in 10 starts and 5 relief appearances. Throw in potentially Chien-Ming Wang, Brad Peacock and Tom Milone, and the pitching looks very strong. This is no longer a rebuild, this is a young team with strong players at almost every position. They aren’t “potential” guys, they are guys who have produced in the majors.

The biggest hole to fill is in center field. They also might invest in another starting pitcher, but they’d probably have to go after a true front line guy to make it worth shoving one of the younger guys aside. First base is a question, too - Chris Marrero and Adam LaRoche could produce at first base, but neither is one you’d count on. I could see them finishing 2012 with Morse as their first baseman, and leave the other corner outfield spot for Bryce Harper.

Nobody expects them to win 100 games next season. Bryce Harper probably won’t start the year with the team, and may not see action until September, if that. But this team is no longer looking to fill dozens of holes. Next seasons results cannot be written off to another year of rebuilding, they have to win games, and they should start being a serious contender for the playoffs within the next 2 seasons.

15 Games Left in the Best Season Yet

Tonight, the Nats will get a chance to beat their win total from last season. They are at 69 wins right now, already besting their 2008 and 2009 marks, 70 gets them over their 2010 spot. If they win 4 more after that, and since they have a total of 15 games remaining it certainly is possible, they’ll have more wins than 2007 (73-89) and their best record since that first year of 81-81. So, with 15 games left, go 5-10 or better, and you have your best season since your first year.

And while the record probably won’t be .500 (although it’s still possible!), this season has to be thought of as better than 2005. The pitching staff in 2005 had two young quality players that showed real promise – John Patterson and Chad Cordero. The rest were aging vets that had good years. The lineup was mostly under 30, but there weren’t too many young sensations on the squad, Nick Johnson was probably the closest.

In other words, 2005 didn’t show a ton of promise for the future but this 2011 team, on the other hand, does. They have a young catcher, at least one young middle infielder (maybe as many as 3), a potential MVP third baseman who is only 26, and 3 or 4 young quality starting pitchers including an almost surefire ace. Throw in Mike Morse and Jayson Werth, who aren’t quite as young, and Bryce Harper on the way, that’s a strong future. Savor it and enjoy it, it isn’t anything that you’ll remember years down the road, and it doesn’t compare to making the playoffs or winning a pennant, but regardless of record, this is the best year this team has had. And next year should be even better.