Post Apocalypse

Timing is everything, isn’t it? Think about some of your friends from high school or college, friends of yours for maybe 2 or 10 or 25 or more years. If they were born a few months later or earlier, they might have been in a different class, and you might never have been friends. Maybe it’s the same with your wife or husband. What about your job? If you applied for more than one job, something might have come through before something else, and the next thing you know, you’re doing A at company X instead of B at company Y.

Or, perhaps, you almost blow a huge lead in the NLDS, go into the 9th still winning, and then lose it there… but it’s in game 2 instead of game 5. Suddenly the end isn’t so painful. The last game of this season sucked for the Nationals, there’s no way around that. But for the 10 teams that make the playoffs, it’s likely that for 9 of them the season ends on a bad note, we’re just talking about the level of badness. It is what it is, and while moves can be questioned, the season ended and the Nats didn’t win the series.

Nats Win Their First Playoff Game Ever

It seems like every day, history is being made for this team. A win in the postseason was a pretty good way for the franchise to introduce itself, and the game was an exciting one. Here are the biggest plays for the Nats from their first playoff win ever. I’ve included the Fangraphs stat Win Probability Added, WPA, and I’ve made them all in positive numbers, the only plays we’re concerned about here are ones that add to the Nats probability. But as you can see, I didn’t just rank em by WPA, because as you’ll notice, that just won’t work. Starting with the first run in Nats postseason history:

5. Kurt Suzuki knocks 1 in (WPA 10.2%)

It became the story of the night it seemed – men on first and third, one out, and someone strikes out. This time it was Danny Espinosa, who had a rough rough night at the bat (3 Ks and a strange bunt that magically ended up doing something good) who struck out, and it was up to the #8 hitter Kurt Suzuki. With the pitcher up next, he might not have thought he’d get much to hit, but that early in the game, Wainwright probably was hoping to start the 3rd by pitching to Gio. So Suzuki did end up with something to hit, and he ripped a ball through the hole on the left side, getting an RBI and putting the Nats up for the moment.

4. Jayson Werth robs Daniel Descalso (WPA 2.5%)

This is one of those plays that doesn’t really show up in things like changes in win probability. And it seems like the same thing in the box score – just a flyout to the right fielder. But Jayson Werth caught that ball with his glove over the fence – if he doesn’t haul it in, it’s a homer, it’s 3-1 and who knows how things unfold from there. I can promise you if he DOESN’T catch, the WPA is significantly different.

A National Day of Celebration

Today you can look at your Washington Nationals and call them the NL East Division Champions. Soak that in – it’s a great feeling. It may have happened earlier than most of us (including me) expected, but we all saw this coming. That doesn’t take away any of the joy this moment should give.

Neither should the fact that this is far from over. You should celebrate today, it is an historical event for DC baseball. And if they win it next year, you should celebrate then as well, because winning your division is something to cheer. But there is a long way to go to win a championship.

I am not sure if this team is the one that will do it – but what do I know, I certainly wasn’t predicting them winning their division. I expect if they win the NLDS the celebrations will actually be more muted than last night’s, because at that point they will still see two more series in front of them. But will they win the NLDS?

Hot Start Increases Playoff Chances

Ok, so that title is obvious, of course doing well increases playoff chances. But sometimes lost in an early strong, or weak start, is that these games count just as much as the ones at the end. You wanna make it to the postseason? Win 90 games or so, and you’re in. It doesn’t matter if you win your first 90 and lose the next 72, you’d still finish 90-72.

But of all the teams over the last week, the Nats have, according to Accuscore, increased their chances of making the playoffs more than any other team in the league. On April 16, they were forecast with a 26.6% chance of playing extra games at the end, and on April 22 that number went up to 51.1%. That’s right, its a 24.4% differential, and it’s officially (according to Accuscore) more likely than not that they’ll make the playoffs.

More importantly than the differential, though, is their overall odds. Looking at the table below, it is clear that as of right now, they have moved themselves into that category: