Nats First Pick in 2012 Draft – Luc Giolito

The Nationals surprised everyone by taking Luc Giolito, a high school pitcher with ace upside. He’s a 6’6″ righty who can hit 100 mph, but he had to shut it down in March due to an elbow injury. Perhaps the Nats history with Strasburg and Zimmermann makes them believe even if he needs a year off for surgery, they’ll still get their money’s worth, although hopefully it won’t come to that.

He impressed everyone until the injury, thanks to has mid to high-90s fastball and a strong curveball. His command is good as well, and as a total package he does project as a potential ace. Keith Law said of Giolito

Had he been healthy all spring, he would probably have been my No. 1 overall player. If the doctors clear him, he could be excellent value in the pick 6-15 range as perhaps the only pitcher in this draft who has true No. 1 starter upside.

Kevin Goldsten felt equally strong about his potential

Among the best high school righties in recent memory, as he has everything scouts look for… much more than just a pure arm, as many teams also saw his power curveball as one of if not the best breaking ball in the draft.

There is, to reiterate, no doubts about his talent. But the elbow injury probably scared quite a few teams away. So did signability, as he did commit to UCLA. If he ends up going there and is healthy (and as good as people think) he’d come out as an overall number one pick. But that couldn’t be for another three years, and Kevin Goldstein is our guide once again

The Nationals don't take Giolito without talking to his camp first to gauge the signability. He'll sign.—
Kevin Goldstein (@Kevin_Goldstein) June 05, 2012

Hopefully that will assuage all of our fears, of course, if he signs it’ll probably be 10 minutes to the deadline so we’ll have some time yet to sweat it out. Goldstein didn’t say whether or not he liked the pick over Twitter, but commented that he has insane upside. Keith Law was more direct:

Love that pick. #nats—
  (@keithlaw) June 05, 2012

So once again, the people who know about scouting are pretty darn excited about what the Nats did. I personally really like this pick. There is no reason to pick for need ever in baseball, but especially when you are already a contender. It doesn’t make send for the Nats to draft someone who likely won’t be in the lineup for a couple of seasons at minium to fill a need when they’re trying to win it now. So another great pitcher despite the dominance of this staff? Absolutely!

I appreciate what they’re doing here, and they probably felt they couldn’t resist this level of talent when it fell to them. Its another year and another guy who truly has the potential to be the best player in the draft. But don’t take my word for it, here’s what Baseball America’s prospect guru Jim Callis said on MLB Network last night:

If you’re talking about a guy in this draft who has the highest upside of any pitcher… it could be Giolito… Huge upside. What amazes me is you’re talking 4 drafts in a row now, just by circumstances and where they picked and how the draft’s fallen, they got Stephen Strasburg, the best pitching prospect in the history of the draft, next year you got Bryce Harper, the best power prospect in the history of the draft, last year picking 6th they got the best hitter in last year’s draft in Anthony Rendon, and this year picking 16 they may have gotten the highest ceiling in the draft. That’s unbelievable. If he stays healthy, that’s an unbelievable 4 year run for the Nationals.

Now we just gotta figure out what to call him. Because we’ve already got a Gio. And it’s very nice.

Maybe the Nats Don’t Want a Type A Right Now

Has Mike Rizzo made a conscious decision to not sign a Type A free agent? Maybe the Nationals don’t want to sign Jose Reyes, Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder. The cost, being the first round pick, not the money, may be too high. What about their pursuit of Roy Oswalt, you say? Well, according to CSNPhilly, the Phillies aren’t going to offer him arbitration. So no draft pick will be taken from the team who signs him. And if they sign any Type A that’s been offered arbitration, be it one of those first 3 guys, or Jimmy Rollins, CJ Wilson, Kelly Johnson, Ryan Madsen, Josh Willingham (ok here’s the list), they’ll have to give up their first round pick.

We all knew that, the Nats were TOO GOOD this year, and if they had finished behind one more team, they would have only had to give up a second round pick instead of a first round pick. But they’re always going to be in this situation now, since they’re getting better, right? No. Buster Olney is reporting that the new labor agreement is being negotiated right now, and it was expected to be announced around the World Series.

It hasn’t yet, and the longer it takes, he surmises, the less chance of certain rules being put in effect next season. The big one I’m getting at? Buster writes, “It’s expected that the new labor agreement may well abolish first-round draft pick compensation, which is tied to Type A free agents.”

So there it is. There is no guarantee that any of this will happen ever. But it seems fairly likely that by the 2013 season, the top 15 teams won’t have to give up their first round picks for signing a Type A free agent. And maybe 2012 will get those rules, maybe it won’t. But if you sign Pujols today, you can’t count on having your first round pick this summer.

Nats 2011 Draft Day 1 Analysis

The Nats were the first team to pick three players, although they were soon outpaced by others, especially those devilish Rays, who had 43 picks in the first 60. Here’s a quick breakdown of each of the guys picked:

Pick #6 – Anthony Rendon (3B, Rice)

Many thought Rendon might go second overall, after Garrett Cole, but prior to this season it was thought he’d go as #1 overall. So for 3 years in a row, the Nats got the guy everyone thought would be #1 nine months prior to the draft, for what that’s worth. His biggest asset is probably is understanding of the strike zone, comparisons remind me of someone like Jason Giambi (for his EYE only), who I used to watch and realize he knew the strike zone better than the umpires. The reviews are glowing. He also has the potential to be a high batting average hitter, maybe a batting title contender, and someone with at least average power, but likely more.

Questions abound, though, not so much based on ability but on health. He has had two ankle surgeries, and this spring has had a shoulder injury. If he is healthy, the question still remains as to where he could play. Rendon is considered an excellent fielding third baseman, which would make the injury the only real question, except if Ryan Zimmerman gets the contract extension many hope is inevitable. Rendon has had some time at 2B, but it isn’t clear he could do that at a major league level. And while he might be a great hitting prospect at 3rd, moving him to LF or 1B certainly diminishes some of his value. And at 6’0″, I have my own doubts that they’d ever move him to first. I’m sure the Nats hope he just turns into the great hitter that some envision, and he can play LF or get traded for some great prospect pitcher.

Nationals 2011 Draft Day Preview

The MLB draft is upon us, and today the Nats will make the number 6 overall pick. They also get to make the number 23 pick and the number 34 pick. A pretty impressive haul, although it pales in comparison to the Rays in number of picks in the first round and the sandwich round (24, 31, 32, 38, 41, 42, 52, 56, 59, 60). But still, the Rays first pick isn’t until after Washington picks twice, and all most fans are going to focus on is that shiney #6 pick. So here are some of the candidates:

Bubba Starling (HS, OF) – Projected as the Nat’s pick by Keith Law in ESPN’s Mock Draft v3.0 and v4.0 (which is the last one) and Jim Callis in Baseball America’s Mock Draft. This one is a stretch for sure, and I’m surprised Law saw him dropping this low. Starling is a high school outfielder who he calls the best athlete in the draft, and he’s choosing between getting paid by baseball and a QB scholarship at Nebraska. #6 picks get money though, so the risk might be how much, rather than whether or not. He’s a 5-tool type guy, with speed and power. Law compares him to Josh Hamilton and says he has superstar potential in CF. He won’t move as quick as Harper, but if he’s there, you’d think the Nats would jump at the chance. No matter how much he wants, it won’t cost as much as their last two top picks.

A Little Signing Day Recap

Finally back in town, I was following the team from afar. I noticed that almost all of the attention in the area was focused on the signing of Bryce Harper, which was important. There was focus on what guys in the clubhouse said about him as well, which was probably less important. And yes, the most important thing was getting him signed. But there were some other significant signings, including guys like AJ Cole and Sammy Solis. These were not just late round signings, they are guys that people project to be major league quality starters.

AJ Cole

According to ESPN, “Cole is one of the most projectable pitchers of the top high school arms in this year’s draft, flashing 96 or 97 in some outings this spring, but offering the potential of more consistent plus velocity and a better breaking ball down the road.” MLB.com puts his fastball lower, around 92-94, and notes the strength of his power slurve. ESPN also notes that, “If you want a projection arm in the first round, he’s probably the top such arm in this draft, but you’ll have to buy him away from a strong commitment to Miami.” MLB.com projected that he’d be one of the first high school pitchers drafted. So he is basically one of the best high school pitchers (Keith Law ranked him #25 overall) and the Nats paid to get him to stay. Cole was a 4th rounder, available so late because people didn’t think they could sign him. The Nats did end up giving him a record amount for a 4th round pick – $2M.

Do the Nats HAVE to Sign Harper?

Now, I am not going to get all excited about anything involving Bryce Harper until about 11:59 pm on August 16th. And I will be, if the drive goes well, in Texas getting my brother to grad school at that time, so I won’t even write a post about it then. That being said, something interesting came to my attention from today’s ESPN article by Jayson Stark:

The Nationals are already floating the hard line that if they don’t get Harper signed, they’d happily take the No. 2 overall pick next year in what’s viewed as a much deeper draft.

That’s not exactly your classic, upbeat, don’t-sweat-it-we’ll-get-him-signed kind of talk, considering the Nationals now have less than two weeks to get this deal done. But whether it’s spin or an indication that their negotiations with Scott Boras are in a danger zone, it’s one more sign that teams are prepared to hang tough with their picks, now that the prospect of some sort of slotting system looms in the next labor deal.

At this point, my first reaction is that it’s total spin, and that they’re completely crazy to think someone is better than Harper. After all, we’ve been trained to believe Harper is the second coming of Babe Ruth/Josh Gibson/Lou Gehrig/Stan Musial/Willie Mays/James Hellwig so they would never want to miss that. But the next line was this:

A Little Bit More of Harper

Yesterday, I tweeted two stories. Ugh, I can’t believe I just said that. Anyway, one was from MASN’s Ben Goessling, the former Washington Times sportswriter, and it said that “Barring an injury or a drastic change, the Nationals will likely take 17-year-old catcher Bryce Harper with the first pick in the June Draft.” Ok, we thought, sounds good! Then a minute later I saw The Washington Post put up a story on The Nats Journal saying “The Nationals may very well take the ultra-hyped, ultra-talented 17-year-old with the first overall pick of June’s First-Year Player Draft. But, contrary to a report, they have not reached a final decision.”

Ok, what gives? First they’re gonna take him, then they’re not. Or maybe not. Or, as you read it, you may interpret that after the first story, the Nats realized this hurts their bargaining position, and didn’t want to make it sound like they definitely were in the tank for Harper, so they wanted to back away from the “definite” part. But it doesn’t matter that much – they can’t trade the pick, it doesn’t hurt that much to say right now today they’re gonna draft him. Of course, Rizzo and company don’t need to show their hand if they’re not comfortable… And the circular argument begins.

Well Keith Law, America’s favorite snarky ex-scout, has a blog on ESPN following the MLB Draft. You can subscribe, if you have ESPN Insider. Back to the Harper part of the story, he made mention of the young phenom in yesterday’s blog post.

Two Biggest Prospects in Decades to Go to the Nats?

According to ESPN, 16 year old phenom Bryce Harper will be eligible for the 2010 draft. That’s next year, for all you without the requisite math courses. What does this mean? It means that once again, the Nats will probably be taking a guy who is light years ahead of the competition in the draft. And assuming they can sign Strasburg, will have to once again pony up some dough for real expectations.

Speaking to the Pitchers

Yesterday I had a chance to speak with the entire starting pitching staff other than Martis. It was a blogger conference call, attended by Zimmermann, Lannan, Detwiler and Stammen. I had a chance to ask a few questions, and between what I asked and what a few others asked, here’s what I picked up. Keep in mind that I am NOT anything close to what one might call a journalist. I am not doing quotes because I don’t want to misquote people. So when I tell you someone’s response, keep in mind I’m paraphrasing.

AGAIN, THESE ARE NOT DIRECT QUOTES FROM ANY OF THESE PITCHERS. I’M GIVING YOU THE GIST HERE:

Specifically to Jordan and Ross, you guys are throwing lots of strikes, striking out lots of hitters. But you’re giving up a lot of hits, too. Are you doing something specific to work on this? (my question)
Detwiler: Throwing strikes early but giving up hits because they aren’t always quality strikes. Try to throw more quality strikes, hitting the corners.
Zimmermann: I get guys to go 0-2, then I throw a strike down the middle, making too good of a pitch instead of just throwing the ball in the dirt and trying to get them to chase.

Saint Stephen with a Closer

Not surprising to all but the biggest of naysayers, the Nats picked Stephen Strasburg, Saint Stephen, the Savior of the Franchise, the Anchorman, and all the other nicknames you can think of to add pressure. If you don’t know about him, welcome back from your journey to a time where there is no internet. To fill you in, he was the overwhelming consensus number 1 pick, considered the best draft prospect in 20 years, if not ever. This season, as a pitcher with San Diego State, he went 13-0, with a 1.24 ERA,  180 K and 19 BB in 152 IP.  He’s 6’5″ and weighs in at 220 lbs. Now all they have to do is sign him.

Scroll down to the bottom of this page to see some more commentary from lots of people on Strasburg. But first, let’s look at the other first round pick for the Nats.

Drew Storen

With the 10th pick, the Washington Nationals select… Drew Storen! Wow, that must have been great for some people, like the Storens, but it just didn’t have the gravity of the Strasburg pick. He wasn’t ranked nearly as high as Saint Stephen by Keith Law (#28) or Baseball America (#36), but that isn’t surprising. The Nats wanted to take someone they could sign easily, both because a struggle might hurt their conversations with Strasburg, and because if they lose this pick, they don’t get compensation next year.