Bryce as Rookie of the Year

The end of the year is coming, and Bryce Harper is making a run for Rookie of the Year. It’s amazing because back on August 26 when he was at his OPS low hitting only .248/.319/.410, he was only in the discussion because of his name. But since then, he’s been on fire, hitting an astounding .342/.406/.700, although that’s only a few weeks of play. How does he stack up against the competition? It’s never easy to judge an award where pitchers and hitters can just as easily win, but let’s start with the hurlers.

Pitching Candidates

One of the frontrunners, perhaps the biggest frontrunner right now, is Wade Miley (3.2 WAR). And Miley’s had a great season – 3.32 ERA (126 ERA+), 134 K, 37 BB in  187 IP. His biggest asset, other than that ERA, is his Ws, which sit at 16. I’m not saying that is makes him the best candidate, I’m saying it helps him out in the voting quite a bit.

The problem is, if you take away the number of Ws, Mike Fiers (1.7 WAR) is having a somewhat similar season. Fiers, a rookie on Milwaukee, is sitting at a 3.74 ERA (111 ERA+), 135 K, 36 BB in 127 2/3 IP. As good of a season as Miley? No, no it isn’t. But it’s not very far off.

There is one more pitcher worth discussing, and that’s Lance Lynn (2.0 WAR). He may steal some votes with his 18 Ws, and his 180 K, 64 BB in 176 IP. But while his ERA of 3.78 doesn’t look too bad, when you adjust for park factors and such, his ERA+ of 102 is clearly inferior. He’ll get votes, but he doesn’t deserve the title. With Lynn being a notch below, and Miley/Fiers being similar enough to make me question voting for a pitcher at all, lets look at the hitters.

Hitting Candidates

Norichika Aoki (3.1) on Milwakee, a 30 year old transfer student from Japan, is hitting .288/.355/.437 with an OPS+ of 110. He’s established himself as a strong leadoff man in a team that was a playoff contender until the final weekend of the season. Aoki also has 28 SBs adding to his value.

Yonder Alonso (1.3 WAR) is probably the big prize to come to the Padres in the Mat Latos trade, a power hitting first baseman. Only he hasn’t shown any power, and that’s not just because he’s playing in San Diego. Hitting .275/.350/.393 shows he can and will hit, but until that power comes, he’s not much of a bat at the corner.

26 year old Cincannti corner man Todd Frazier (1.9 WAR) has had a very good season, and his .274/.333/.500 proves it. That slugging is a little more impressive than it should be due to his home ballpark, and that’s reflected in his 116 OPS+, which isn’t spectacular. He’s got 19 HRs, but he’s experiencing a September slump, and his playing time has been limited as well.

Zack Cozart (2.6 WAR) is another Reds player, and he’s been strong in his own right. But it’s mostly been with the glove. He’s hitting only .249/.291/.405, and while that home ballpark does inflate slugging some, he is showing legitimate power potential. But those numbers don’t win it this year.

Wilin Rosario (1.9 WAR) is a 23 year old catcher for the Rockies, and he is showing some true star potential. Hitting .274/.316/.535, he isn’t particularly selective but he’s certainly got pop. He also has 27 HRs, downright impressive for a rookie. But the low OBP and the famously HR friendly home park drags down his WAR and his OPS+, only a 109.

And finally, Bryce Harper (4.2 WAR) and his .269/.339/.476 with 17 SBs. He’s got 22 HRs, which isn’t quite as many as Rosario, but he doesn’t play in Colorado. Harper has spent most of his time recently in CF, which adds defensive value, and his arm is not to be trifled with. He is certainly the most well-rounded of the players on this list, and his OPS+ of 118 is the best among the group.

Verdict

Aoki’s OBP is so high, and Rosario’s is so low, that it seems to be a 4 horse race to me – Harper, Miley, Aoki and Frazier. I’m not comfortable with Miley, although his value is higher than Fiers, I don’t think I’d take him over any of the hitters. There is certainly a case to be made, but I’d rank him behind the other guys.

I’d personally rank Aoki over Frazier, mostly on the strength of his defense and his high SB #. Frazier has more power, but Aoki has delivered more value this season,  although it is rather close.

But I believe Harper will, in the end, get the nod. His overall numbers are superior, and his ability to play an effective CF to boot certainly helps. But as I mentioned above, he is more well rounded and that’s what should get him votes. He only sits behind Alonso (who won’t win) and Aoki in terms of OBP, but he also is only behind Frazier in SLG. On top of that, he’s #2 in SBs.

The mammoth shots and the hype won’t hurt his abilities to get votes, but it really is the numbers that make Bryce Harper the best candidate for NL Rookie of the Year.

What Does One Game Mean?

Its amazing what one night can do for a team. The 14-2 win might not end up meaning much in the grand scheme of things, there are, after all, 161 other games to be played. And the games versus Atlanta might be more important just because of what it does to the NL East standings. But still, a drubbing like that… alot of things happened in one night that are simultaneously completely meaningless and totally consequential, depending on how you look at the world. But it certainly showed that the Nats, a team built on pitching and known mostly for it, can score with the best of them.

The Offense 

This team, the Washington Nationals, have scored the most runs since the All Star break. Think about that for a minute. This is a team that was winning thanks almost entirely to their pitching staff early in the season, with late game heroics allowing them to take 2-1 leads in the 8th, and plenty of anectodal stories just like that. But here they are, scoring the most runs in baseball since mid-July. And take a gander on the right side of the screen. That’s right, they’re now 6th in the NL in runs per game. Murderer’s Row it aint, but that’s till a pretty good place to be. And keep in mind that offensive explosion was at one of the best, if not the best, pitcher’s park in baseball.

The Cy Young Race

That they did it against Ryan Vogelsong was also significant. Going in to the game, he might not have been the leading Cy Young candidate, but he was certainly leading the NL in ERA. Now if you look at that list, you see Jordan Zimmermann right at the top. Now Vogelsong has one more win that JZimm, but the same number of Ks and a half a run more on the ERA. Is Jordan the leader for the award? Probably not – voters are still hung up on wins, and he doesn’t strike a ton of guys out. Dickey’s got the Ks, the ERA and the Ws, as does Cueto (who gets bonus points for pitching in a hitter’s park), but that is probably you’re top 3 right now. So Zimmermann certainly has a chance, and the Nats knocking the guy who’s season who most like his down on the ERA list helped his case quite a bit.

Nationals in Contention… for Awards

We’re just about two months into the season, so while the sample sizes are small, we’re only a week or two away from 1/3 of the season being done. Especially for starting pitchers, who only need about 2 more starts to get that first third out of the way. So yes it’s early, but a few guys on the Nats are putting together resumes that will look good when end of year awards are being decided.

Starting with pitching, Gio Gonzalez is putting together what could be a strong Cy Young contending season. Among qualified starters, here how he ranks in the league among qualified NL starters:

• 1st in Ks (60) and K/9 (11.10)
• 3rd in OPS against (.499)
• 9th in ERA (2.22)
• Tied for 2nd in W (5)
• 8th in WHIP (0.99)

Speaking of strong pitching, Jordan Zimmermann actually ranks right above Gio in ERA (2.14) and WHIP (0.97), but his 2-3 record may hurt any award chances. And his 32 Ks tie him with Lohse and Dickey for 47th in the league. However, he is 7 for 7 in quality starts, so that consistancy could pay off later in the year. Strasburg also has looked great, although he ranks behind Gio and Zimm in ERA and WHIP, he has been dominant in all but one start. But he might not even qualify for the ERA crown in October, so he probably can’t win an award.

Adam LaRoche, perhaps surprisingly considering how he normally starts, is also working on an award winning season. Here’s how he ranks among qualifiers in the NL:

Verlander’s Perceived Value

Justin Verlander won the MVP award, and I don’t doubt that he was incredibly valuable to his team. And I’m not saying he didn’t deserve the award, he certainly belonged on everyone’s ballot who believes pitchers should be able to win the award. But it made me ponder how most of the members of the BBWAA think about these things, compared to how a more sabrmetric minded baseball analyst might think about them. Here’s what I came up with:

DC IBWA 2010 Awards

What is the DC IBWA, you ask? Why, it’s the DC Internet Baseball Writer’s Association! Anyway, the group has asked for my, as well as everyone else who blogs about the Nats, vote on several topics. They’re due on Saturday, so I figured as I submitted my votes, I’d also let everyone see it. We get three votes for each category, with 5 points for first place, 3 for 2nd place and 1 for 3rd place. Here goes:

Goose Goslin MVP

1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adam Dunn
3. Josh Willingham

Walter Johnson Starting Pitcher

1. Livan Hernandez
2. Stephen Strasburg
3. John Lannan

Firpo Marberry Relief Pitcher of the Year

DC Player Achievement Awards

Dave Nichols of the Nationals News Network, and a founder of the Washington, DC chapter of the Internet Baseball Writers Association (DC-IBWA), was kind enough to send over the forms to vote for the 2009 player achievement awards. Here’s the link to the page, below is the final results. I’ve also put stars next to the people I voted for, although since we each got to vote for first, second and third place, they may not match up with the order I put them in.

Goose Goslin Most Valuable Player

Player most valuable to the success of the Washington Nationals:

1st: Ryan Zimmerman* (92 points, 16 first place votes)
2nd: Adam Dunn* (41 points, one first place vote)
3rd: Nyjer Morgan (25 points, three first place votes)
Others: John Lannan* (19), Josh Willingham (3)

Walter Johnson Starting Pitcher of the Year

Excellent performance as a starting pitcher

1st: John Lannan* (96 points, 18 first place votes)
2nd: Jordan Zimmermann* (42 points, two first place votes)
3rd: Craig Stammen* (22 points)
Others: J.D. Martin (6), Garrett Mock (4), Livan Hernandez (3), Ross Detwiler (2)

Frederick “Firpo” Marberry Relief Pitcher of the Year

Excellent performance as a relief pitcher

Congrats Dmitri!

Dmitri Young won the comeback player of the year award for the NL this season. Congrats to Dmitri, he definitely deserved it, as his comeback stretched well beyond his accomplishments on the baseball field.

In terms of what this means for his future, well a quick check of the past winners of this award shows that it may not be promising. I did a quick check of the OPS of the award winners, and compared their OPS during the year they won the award, and the year after they won it. In other words, was the comeback longer lasting than one season? I considered an OPS change from the first year to the second of less then .025 to be “the same.” Of the 51 previous winners who were hitters, a remarkable 37 of them had a worse OPS (by more than .025) the year after the award, 8 stayed within .025 in each direction, and 4 improved by more than .025. There are many possible reasons for this – you gotta have a great season to win the award (MVP players usually have their best seasons when they win their award, too), it has to be preceeded by a bad season (maybe you’re streaky, not a comeback guy), the average age of the award winner are 32, which is usually about the time players decline, etc. It points to the fact that this is probably the best we’ll see from Dmitri.

EXCEPT…

Here’s the good news: While only players 4 actually improved the season after they won the award, 3 of them were coming back from injuries – Bo Jackson (who won the award after his football-career-ending hop injury), Tony Conigliaro (who won the award after being beaned in the eye), and Mike Lieberthal (who won the award after tearing all 3 major ligaments of his right knee). Of the 8 players who basically stayed the same, 4 of them – Jason Giambi, Kevin Elster, Jose Canseco (remember, in the same season he let the ball bounce of his head, he hurt his arm pitching), and Dave Winfield – also were coming off of significant time missed due to injury. Young was coming back from missing significant time as well, including time in rehab, and was affected negatively by his divorce. He is refreshed in ways similar to these players. Of the guys who won the award, and didn’t do as well or better the next season, less than half, about 40% were coming back from injury. One interesting case was Boog Powell, who won the award twice in his career, and lost over .200 OPS the following season both times!

What does this mean? I’m not sure it gives too much predictive power. It does show that historically, players who did as well or better the following season were more likely to have been coming back from injury than those who didn’t. My money is on him having a slightly worse season, but something plenty good, more along the lines of his typical career numbers – in other words, he probably won’t hit .320 again, but slugging .490 isn’t a stretch.