Nats and the OBP Decline

June 26, 2012

The Nats are finishing up a relatively strong month, despite starting off a road trip 1-3, and remain in first place in the NL East by a healthy 3 1/2 games (it’s the biggest lead in the majors at the moment). But all is not well in DC, as this has been almost solely on the strength of pitching and defense, while the offense has been quite lacking. Last night’s 2 run loss in Colorado seemed to stir up emotions about how it is a microcosm of poor offense.

This is silly, nobody would have mentioned the offense if Roger Bernadina‘s liner had been hit about 5 more feet towards CF. One game just isn’t enough to tell you what any team is about. Texas leads the world in runs scored, they play in what Baseball Reference indicates is the best hitter’s park in the AL over the last three years, yet they only scored two runs last night against Rick Porcello, who entered the game with a 4.95 ERA… Oh my god, Texas can’t hit!

The Nats, on the other hand, have more going on than just one bad game, and it’s ridiculous to talk about one game like it means more than one game. It makes more sense to look at all the games, and when you do that, well, the Nats REALLY make the case that they aren’t performing. Here is what the team’s On Base Percentage and Slugging Percentage have done this season, relative to today’s league average (click to enlarge):

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