The latest PECOTA numbers just came out today from Baseball Prospectus. PECOTA is their predicitive set of numbers for how players will perform this year. The playing time hasn’t been worked out yet, so rather than look at any counting numbers, let’s take a look at their rates. Today we’ll start with the Nationals hitters.
Ok, for hitters I added one counting number. I took their predicted HRs, divided it by number of PAs and then multiplied it by 600. That’s normalizes everyone at about a 150 game season, so it’ll give a perspective on how many HRs PECOTA sees these guys hitting given a more or less full season.
Ryan Zimmerman – .285/.350/.473, 22 HR. This seems a little light on power – it’s very very close to his .288/.355/.479 career splits, but that prediction seems off to me. He had showed improved power and patience in 2009 and 2010 to that career line, and while last year his numbers didn’t indicate that, he was playing with an injury that likely hindered his power. I’ll take the over on this one
Jayson Werth – .261/.354/.449, 23 HR. This is significantly better than his 2011. It’s on line with his career numbers (a little less slugging) and it’s almost identical to the .264/.349/.445 he hit after July 18th last year.